Movement and abundance are important for tick detection

Estimates of tick abundance and distribution are central to assessing the risk of tick-host contact. Traditional tick surveys provide estimates of distribution and relative abundance for species that remain stationary and quest for hosts, but these measures are often less reliable for species that actively move in search of hosts, such as Amblyomma americanum (the lone star tick). Accurate risk assessments for contact with adult A. americanum require an understanding of their spatial and temporal activity patterns, how those patterns change over time, and in response to environmental conditions. This is further complicated by limited knowledge of the species’ movement capabilities and the inability of standard surveillance methods to distinguish between an active population from an abundant one. Improved understanding of this tick’s behavior is essential for accurate risk assessment for this emerging threat to human and animal health. While many models rely on long-term and contemporaneous environmental variables to estimate tick activity, our study integrates short-term weather conditions with field and laboratory data to parameterize a model that simulates the detection of A. americanum over a short four-week period. Our findings show that tick-host contact and the detection of adult A. americanum are driven by a dynamic interaction between tick abundance and activity, which can act synergistically or antagonistically over time, leading to changes in contact risk across short temporal scales.