Identifying hotspots of insect invasiveness in North America

Biological invasions by non-native insects pose an increasing threat to biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, and public health across North America. These species can alter ecosystem function, disrupt native communities, and impose substantial economic costs. Despite growing awareness, anticipating where future invasions may occur remains a major challenge for proactive surveillance and management. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify spatial hotspots of insect invasion across North America. We compiled occurrence records for a curated set of known invasive insect species and paired them with high-resolution climate variables to estimate potential distributions using correlative modeling techniques. Individual species models were generated and then combined into ensemble predictions to highlight cumulative areas of invasion risk under current environmental conditions. Our results reveal consistent geographic hotspots, including the southeastern United States, parts of California, the Great Lakes region, western Canada, and central Mexico, where multiple species are projected to find suitable conditions. These regions emerge as priorities for enhanced biosecurity, early detection, and management. This approach provides a scalable, data-driven framework to anticipate areas at risk of future insect invasions and guide strategic monitoring and management actions.