Modeling ecological niches in disjunct populations of an at-risk butterfly under global change

Understanding the habitat requirements and species distributions of at-risk species is essential for effective conservation. Moreover, assessing how the distribution of suitable habitat changes over time can help explain past declines and predict future potential range shifts. Here, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to identify suitable habitat for the at-risk Florida butterfly, Loammi skipper (Atrytonopsis loammi: Hesperiidae). Using a subset of tuned bioclimatic variables and different delimitations of accessible areas, we found significant differences in niche characteristics between two disjunct northern and southern subpopulations. Additionally, we incorporated consensus land cover data from EarthEnv, combining climate and remotely sensed landscape features to refine suitability predictions and understand how the encroachment of built environment may further fragment and reduce habitat. We also backcasted niches onto past paleoclimatic landscapes to identify regions where suitable habitat has declined, potentially contributing to observed disjunctions and range contractions. Finally, we forecasted future distributions using climate projection models to assess potential range shifts under multiple global change scenarios. Our models identify areas that may serve as refuges under climate change, guiding management and supporting potential corridor design, assisted movement of populations, and reintroductions. Ongoing work will use population genomic data to assess whether ecological divergence between subpopulations is mirrored by genetic differentiation. Detecting such patterns could provide evidence of local adaptation and the need for population-level conservation actions. Together, this research offers a framework for combining climatic, land cover, and genomic data to inform conservation planning for at-risk species under changing environmental conditions.