The soothsayer far afield: Population dynamics and ecological niche of the invasive European mantis, Mantis religiosa (Mantodea: Mantidae)

Human activities are driving the spread of non-native species globally, causing ecological and economic damage. Therefore, the ability to predict potential ranges and determine origins of non-native species is crucial to assess the risk of future introductions. Ecological niche models (ENMs) provide a useful predictive tool for this purpose, but its accuracy depends heavily on multiple factors, including the extent of model calibration. Here, we tested whether ENMs can accurately predict the non-native ranges of the European mantis (Mantis religiosa) and determined the origins of this nearly cosmopolitan species. This species is endemically found in Europe, Asia, Africa, and has been introduced to North America in the 1800s. Since this species is highly predatory and broadly consumes prey across different taxonomic groups (including reptiles, birds, and many insects), the spread of this species across North America is a serious conservation concern that remains unassessed. We thus generated ENMs at different spatial scales and calibration data to test whether the current distribution within North America could be predicted accurately. Additionally, using available COI data, reconstructed the origin of the North American population of M. religiosa. While all fitted ENMs showed high predictive performance, the output predictions differed considerably depending on the initial calibration range. Resolution of the evolutionary relationships of different localities of M. religiosa finds the USA population originates from France, though major continents exhibit notable genetic divergence. Our results prompt further investigations to better understand the introduction history of this species, its population dynamics, and implications for conservation.