Assessing the Wallacean shortfall in non-native insect records: Implications for predictive modeling

Invasive non-native insects can negatively impact biodiversity, ecological networks, human health, and economy. Ecological niche models (ENMs) have been an important tool in anticipating the geographic potential of such species invasions, based on occurrence data from museum specimens, citizen science reports, and other sources. In this study, we aimed (I) to evaluate the availability and quality of primary data for non-native insect species in North America and (II) to analyze differences in geographic and environmental predictions between preserved specimen data and occurrences from the iNaturalist citizen science platform. We used national checklists to identify non-native insect species for each country, obtained occurrence data for those species from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and used a standardized framework to filter and analyze available data for each species. Our results reveal significant Wallacean shortfalls for non-native insect species. Models based on different datasets revealed distinct environmental signals and consequent geographic predictions. Greater collection effort is needed for non-native insect species; incorporation of new tools to improve reliability and quality of data can enhance management strategies for non-native insects.