Mapping pollinator persistence: A spatially explicit model of bee reproduction under combined floral resource and pesticide stressors

Pollinators face mounting pressures from habitat degradation and chemical exposure, yet most models fail to integrate these drivers in a spatially explicit and ecologically grounded framework. We present a population-dynamic model simulating queen bee reproduction, dispersal, and survival across heterogeneous landscapes. Incorporating floral resources and pesticide exposure, we identify reproductive bottlenecks and tipping points between population growth vs decline. Sensitivity analyses reveal that life-history traits, such as reproductive rate and foraging range, substantially mediate vulnerability. Through scenario modeling, we evaluate the relative effectiveness of floral strips, pesticide reduction, and restoration. Results show habitat restoration delivers the greatest gains in queen population size and spatial resilience, while floral strips offer limited localized benefit. Our findings provide spatially explicit insights for pollinator conservation, emphasizing the need for integrated strategies tailored to landscape structure and species traits.