Exploring the consequence of phenological variation on fitness in the European corn borer

Season length and temperature vary geographically and are known to change through time and due to climate change. Many organisms experience intense pressure to fit their life cycle into the appropriate seasonal conditions. To do so, they often rely on predictable environmental cues such as light and temperature to time important life history events. The European Corn Borer (ECB, Ostrinia nubilalis) is a moth pest species that harbors genetic variation in a phenology trait responsible for a nearly 3-week difference in spring post-diapause development time (PDD) (Kozak et al., 2019). This difference can have important consequences for the timing and number of generations, as well as whether a population is able to successfully enter diapause. Using a phenological modeling framework, we investigate the fitness consequences of variation in post-diapause development time in ECB across space and through time. ​